SEFS research scientist Susan Prichard, alongside colleagues from the U.S. Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest Research Station — Paul Hessburg, Nicholas Povak and Brion Salter — and consulting fire ecologist Robert Gray, have developed a tool for modeling wildfires that could help managers and policymakers better understand long-term consequences of different fire management practices and policies.

The tool, known as REBURN, can simulate large forest landscapes and wildfire dynamics over decades or centuries under different wildfire management strategies. The model can simulate the consequences of extinguishing all wildfires regardless of size, which was done for much of the 20th century, or of allowing certain fires to return to uninhabited areas. REBURN can also simulate conditions where more benign forest landscape dynamics have fully recovered in an area.

The researchers applied REBURN to a region in north-central Washington, and found that setting prescribed burns and allowing smaller wildfires to burn can yield more varied and resilient forests over time.